Road to Nationals - M12 Impact

In the run up to the UK Magic National Championship this year I will be discussing the Standard format as it evolves globally and locally. Whilst the banning of Jace, the Mind Sculptor and Stoneforge Mystic has blown the format wide open, it isn't until the arrival of this year's Core Set, Magic 2012, that we can fully begin to gauge what direction the format might take. In this post I would like to discuss the cards revealed thus far that will most impact Standard for Nationals. I emphasise, this is not a review and is not looking forward to rotation or anything like that. The purpose of the "Road to Nationals" posts to build and prepare for the single most important event in the nation.

Stating the Obvious

Only one card at the beginning of the spoiler season had an immediate home, and that was Rampant Growth. With Valakut already showing a dominant presence in new Standard, the return of Rampant Growth will be receive a warm welcome from the many players seizing their opportunity to rise above the competition now that the Stoneforge fuelled clock of Caw-Blade is a fading nightmare.

The other Primeval Titan based strategy to benefit from this return is Eldrazi, with the lack of Jace around to disrupt the deck in its setup phase. Though the Splinter Twin combo poses a tremendous threat to "do nothing" strategies like Valakut and Eldrazi, the sheer amount of easy hate for the combo allows the big green strategies to flourish.

White Blight

It will come as no surprise to those who know me that the thought of losing to a weenie deck of any kind is a thoroughly depressing experience for me. Thankfully, successful rush strategies are fairly rare, with success stories rising infrequently of crazy Ezuri combo's and perfectly curving into a Ball Lightning with Teetering Peaks. White, however, hasn't truly seen a successful weenie rush strategy since Kithkin, back at the start of Lorwyn standard, and BW Tokens at the end of the same format. After the disappointment of the Quest for the Holy Relic combo builds, white has earned a few aggressively priced tools to work with.

Grand Abolisher is the latest in the series of white-based bears with anti-control abilities tacked on. Whilst many of these bears have seen a good amount of play in the past, this particular beast is most reminiscent of Gaddock Teeg in his prime. Remember when Kithkin curved out perfectly with Goldmeadow Stalwart into Wizened Cenn, whilst you comfortably wait with Cryptic Command and Wrath of God sitting in hand. Then they summon Gaddock Teeg whilst you're sat waiting with Vivid lands. Teeg locked players out of their solid and reliable strategies, and most importantly out of their comfort zones. Grand Abolisher promises to do the same this format.

Fans of SCG's "The Magic Show" will undoubtedly be able to recall Evan Erwin's memorable response to the reveal of Spectral Procession. His words "Three. Dudes. Seriously." can yet again be put into action by taking a look at Timely Reinforcements. Yet again we have a 3cc Sorcery that makes tokens, but only if your opponent is ahead. While these tokens don't fly, Timely Reinforcements shows strong potential as a counter-strike card for a deck dedicating space to Honor of the Pure and Student of Warfare. Spot removal will be rampant in new Standard, but so will walls. Wall of Omens and Overgrown Battlements will be widely played, making the curve of Honor of the Pure > Timely Reinforcements > Ajani Goldmane and swing for 9 perfecly do-able. Time will tell if it is worth it, and if a splash into black or red can make better use of the dead first turn.

The final aggressively designed white card in fact evokes the spirit of a classically played control win condition. Angelic Destiny is a difficult card to crack, as it is quite difficult to compare reasonably to anything in the past. The boon for enchanting a creature is certainly worthwhile for the cost, but the initial fear is resolving the enchantment safely. Aura's have traditionally seen minimal play due to the ability to claim a 2-for-1 in killing the target and forcing the enchantment to fizzle. The fear of losing both creature and aura after resolution, however, is non-existent thanks to the fact that this card jumps back into the hand when the creature dies. This reminds me of how Griffin Guide allowed for a continual and determined push from aggro decks in Time Spiral Block, but as the Guide never really graduated into Standard play it's difficult to gauge whether this card stands a chance. If it does, it will be on the shoulders of Grand Abolisher and his game warping effect.

Blood Red

Though white appear to have the potential to flourish following M12, Red decks are already quite a common sight. Red provides a difficult clock to beat, punishing decks like Valakut for taking them too lightly. Of the cards showing potential in M12, red definitely dominates in numbers. Incinerate returns in M12, and will see play immediately, however the big reprint is that of Grim Lavamancer. While most will likely remember Lavamancer for his punishing finisher potential in Zoo decks of Extended's past, his most recent action has actually been in Legacy blue-based control decks splashing red just for him! The lack of need to swing past walls is just as strong as the ability to pick off creatures of toughness 2 or less every turn, and I expect Grim Lavamancer will find a home in a wide variety of decks.

Red decks will also be presented with an interesting choice with M12. Throughout Scars Block we saw a gradual push towards playable Goblins, and M12 brings the catalyst for the deck in the form of Goblin Grenade. With the sheer number of strong goblins we have to work with, it shouldn't be hard to form an incredibly fast clock.

Chandra's Phoenix, however, provides red with an option somewhere between Vengevine and Hell's Thunder. That comparison alone shows that the Phoenix is in good company, and will undoubtedly see play in Red Deck Wins during the Nationals season. I myself ran RDW last year due to the sheer speed and reliability of the Unearth mechanic, and this little bird is already tempting me to tap Mountains again!

Illusion or Delusion?

Despite the obvious quality of Lord of the Unreal, I simply dismissed the potential of an Illusion aggro deck on the fact that a Bear and Djinn that die to Grim Lavamancer without their Lord (who ALSO dies to Lavamancer...) simply cannot hold itself together. The revelation of Phantasmal Image turned things around pretty fast however. Phantasmal Image is not only a half-price Clone in a format full of Titans, but it's a clone that is absolutely unreal entering the battlefield as Lord of the Unreal. A 3/3 Hexproofed Anthem for 2 you say? It's definitely worth keeping an eye out for these illusive wanna-be Fish.

Maintaining Control

As a control player I'm happy to see that initial results from the new format suggest that a wide variety of strategies are alive and well, even in the fact of Valakut. Spreading Seas and Tectonic Edge are clearly the tools necessary to defeat the enemy, but M12 certainly provides some powerful treats for the more patient players out there. First and very much most importantly is the card that Wizards themselves realised should not have left standard: Oblivion Ring. That's right, the most reliable, main deck-able removal card in white is back, and it couldn't have picked a better time! With Jace, the Mind Sculptor banished from the format, players have desperately sought other 'walkers to dominate with in the late game. Whilst Karn and Liliana have received an adequate amount of respect, it is Venser, the Sojourner who has seen the most significant boost in popularity. UW will now have access to Wall of Omens, Spreading Seas, Oblivion Ring, Blade Splicer, Jace Beleren, Sun Titan and undoubtedly more for Venser to blink in and out of existence before the Nationals season is over. Oblivion Ring strengthens UW strategies considerably, and is definitely where I intend to starting working on the format myself.

Every new set leads a horde of players to rant in unison that Mono Black Control is here again. With Jace gone and Sword of Feast and Famine a rare sight, MBC has already seen an increasing presence in Standard. Phyrexian Obliterator and an assortment of powerful removal and discard seems like a fair strategy, and the reprint of Distress works to reinforce MBC. Though we currently have an abundance of 1cc discard spells, we can no longer assume which versions are best for the metagame without a dominant powerhouse to target. Inquisition of Kozilek will likely remain the best discard choice, but supporting it with Distress could well prove safer than having cards end up dead in hand. This core set shockingly also sees the return of Smallpox to Standard. This will prove to be a difficult card to break without any obvious engines, but it certainly can't be ignored in a format with Vengevines and Planeswalkers retaining the advantage.

All being said, the most important card thus far in M12 for control has to be Solemn Simulacrum. Wizards has made it perfectly clear that it wants slower decks to be rewarded with powerful win conditions like Titans, and the reprint of Solemn Simulacrum reinforces this. I expect Solemn Simulacrum to see widespread play, from splashes in stable decks like Valakut to much needed acceleration in decks dedicated to our two favourite Artificers, Tezzeret and Venser. The versatility of Solemn Simulacrum is obvious, but reaches incredible new levels when used in conjunction with these two 'walkers. The interaction may even be enough to warrant a push towards a UBW list utilising the two. Unfortunately, the need for Tectonic Edge will likely make us wait for such a deck to form post-rotation instead.

Planeswalkers?

Throughout this post I have decided to stay quiet regarding our newcomer Planeswalkers, but that does not mean I do not think they're good cards. Jace, Garruk and Chandra will likely struggle to find a home during this National season. I have already made my thoughts clear regarding Jace, Memory Adept, and I will follow up soon enough with my thoughts on the other two. But as far as Standard goes for the next couple of months, expect Jace Beleren, Koth, Tezzeret, Gideon, Liliana, Karn and Venser to see play over any of our latest additions. They simply can't compare right now.

This concludes my first look at the evolution of Standard with the arrival of M12. I will follow up soon with comments on any further potential revealed by the set, as well as a few initial lists of my own and those to look out for from the events starting off the season.